1. Overall Demand: Global Surge, Reaching Record High in 2026

Global optical fiber demand in 2026: 750–800 million core kilometers Year-on-year growth: 28%~30%, far higher than the usual annual growth of 5%~10% Supply-demand gap: Over 100 million core kilometers with a gap rate above 16% Nearly one in six optical fibers is in short supply, leading to an overall market shortage. In short, market demand has exploded sharply.

2. Complete Shift in Demand Structure: From Traditional Communication to AI Computing Power

(1) AI Data Center (Largest growth driver, accounting for over 30%)

Data center optical fiber demand in 2025: 69.6 million core kilometers Estimated demand in 2026: Exceed 100 million core kilometers, up 150% One ten-thousand-card GPU AI cluster consumes hundreds of thousands of core kilometers of optical fiber. Fiber consumption of AI data centers is 5–10 times that of traditional data centers. Hot-selling products: Ribbon fiber, multi-core fiber, high-density fiber and low-bend-loss G.657 fiber are in extreme shortage.

(2) Traditional Telecom Business (Stable demand with slower growth)

Accounting proportion drops to 45% in 2026 from 65% in previous years. Main applications: 5G base stations, FTTH and metropolitan area network construction. Large-scale network deployment is ongoing in China, Southeast Asia, the Middle East and Latin America.

(3) Industrial Internet & Low-Altitude Economy (UAV)

Industrial Internet accounts for 15%, widely used in intelligent manufacturing, robots and industrial optical networks. Fiber-guided UAV industry: Single UAV consumption: 20–30 core kilometers (non-recyclable) Global annual demand: 50 million core kilometers, taking up 10% of total demand, versus only 1% in 2024.

(4) Booming Overseas Market Demand

North America: Tech giants including Microsoft, Google and Meta are building massive AI clusters, locking up most production capacity via long-term contracts. Europe, the Middle East and Southeast Asia: Rapid development of both data centers and 5G networks has led to almost zero spot fiber supply.

3. Market Price: Overall Sharp Increase

Common single-mode G.652D: Rise from ¥15 to ¥83–94 per core kilometer, surge over 400% Bend-insensitive G.657A2 for data centers: Rise from ¥32 to ¥240 per core kilometer, surge over 650% Ribbon fiber: Hardly available in stock with unstable prices, delivery scheduled till late 2027.

4. Lead Time: Extremely Long, Almost No Spot Goods

Ordinary G.652D single-mode fiber: 24–36 weeks (6–9 months) Data center ribbon fiber: Over 60 weeks (more than 1 year) Special optical fiber (G.657, polarization-maintaining fiber, MCF): Out of stock in general, delivery postponed to 2028.

5. Core Reasons for Fiber Shortage

· Demand side: Booming AI computing power construction triggers skyrocketing fiber consumption.

· Supply side: The expansion cycle of optical fiber preform (core raw material) lasts 18–24 months, and full production capacity still cannot meet market needs.

· Capacity occupation: Top manufacturers such as YOFC, HTGD, FiberHome and ZTT have 70%–80% of their production capacity reserved by cloud giants and telecom operators through long-term agreements.

· Hoarding behavior: Traders snap up spot goods and hold stocks for higher profits.

6. Core Conclusions

1. Optical fiber market demand keeps rising remarkably, and the booming trend will last at least until 2028.

2. Current fiber purchasing is difficult with long delivery cycles and high prices, which is not a short-term market fluctuation.

3. AI data center construction is the core driving force, and ribbon fiber as well as special optical fiber face the tightest supply situation.